Sunday, May 7, 2006

Cox Gaining /Taylor Declining

So much for the television babies. Cathy Cox is THE Democrat to take on Perdue. She has consistently polled better than Taylor against Perdue, and now, she is gaining significant ground while Taylor's numbers are declining. The latest Rasmussen Poll shows Perdue leading Cox by just six points, while he leads Taylor by 15 points. (Thanks for the heads up about the poll from the folks over at Perdue Watch.) A poll of 500 likely voters on April 18th shows:

Perdue: 48%
Cox: 42%

Perdue: 51%
Taylor: 36%

As the legislative session began, Perdue led both Cox and Taylor by 20 points. Apparently, Georgians have been paying attention! Also, I note that this poll was conducted about the same time Taylor and Perdue went up on the air, but, of course, Cox has not fired her first salvo in that battle as yet.

These numbers are consistent with other polling data, and the trend over time shows Cox consistently stronger against Perdue. And that's really the ballgame isn't it? I mean, we can all like Taylor; we can all appreciate his contributions, but don't we want to actually elect a Governor? Don't we want to send our strongest candidate into November?

I'm going to say this again: there are lots of good reasons to vote for Cathy Cox. We can talk about education, healthcare, economic development, etc. But one very pragmatic thing is clear: if Democrats want to actually elect a Governor in November, then our nominee must be Cathy Cox. It is time to support the candidate who can WIN.


Taylor Troll said...

Hate to break it to you, but on the poll web page that you link to, the date is April 18, 2006. That is in the top left corner, above the results.

That happened to be the Tuesday that Taylor started his TV. So maybe some poll respondents had seen the ad once but my guess is that most hadn't yet. I would like to see a poll conducted more recently (like at least after one week of Taylor's TV being up, but better yet after Perdue's had been up a week also) to see what's changed.

Spin for Cox all you want, but in this instance it isn't justified, ie this doesn't prove Mark's TV has been ineffective, which technically the jury is still out on, because we haven't seen a poll yet conducted after people already had a chance to see the ads.

HallCountyDem said...

April 18 was also about 10 days before Taylor's second ad joined the baby in rotation. And something else. I know it made national news. It's just slipped my mind, but I saw it on CNN, Fox, MSNBC, the NY Times, the LA Times and the Macon Telegraph. Show me a poll taken after May 1.

Amy Morton said...

Troll, I acknowledged the timing of this poll. It is still very good news for Cox, and very bad news for Taylor and for Perdue. AS I said, this is consistent with the trend that shows only COx has a shot at Perdue.

Also, the polling data illustrates why Taylor and Perdue had to go up on the air so early. Perdue's only prayer is to keep repeating his message over and over again, hoping that voters will believe what he says instead of looking at what he did.

By the way, I have no doubt that Taylor will gain ground following the ad buy. It would not surprise me at all to see the Taylor camp release internal tracking that shows just that, perhaps even that he has pulled even with Cox. Butif you are the only dem on television, and you don't gain ground, then you ought to be firing somebody. Cox can and will do television, too, and with that playing field leveled, voters will not only find her appealing, they will find the issues she presents compelling.

My point is, Sonny and Mark can engage in this "cutest baby" contest all they want, at the end of the day, voters will pick a Governor, not a baby. The issues this state faces are hardly child's play.

Taylor Troll said...

I'm not sure I understand your point.

Cox has done two years of television via the securities fraud settlement while Perdue has nightly access to the media by virtue of his office. At the time this poll was taken, Perdue had near 100% name ID, Cox had high name ID due to the residual effect of being on TV and radio commercials for her office and Taylor had lower ID thanks to not being on TV or the radio.

Of course poll results would look better for her at that point. Now that Taylor has at least a 3 week head start on campaign advertising I'd like to see a poll to see what's changed (if anything).

Taylor supporters argument about the campaign has always been that Cox's early lead is based entirely on name ID due to the SOS television ads that our tax dollars paid for, and that given the chance to introduce himself to the electorate via his own advertising, Taylor would pull ahead, win the primary and be the stronger candidate for November.

Cox supporters have always denied this, which is their right, but in all fairness we haven't seen a poll yet conducted that could prove either of us right or wrong. All this poll proves is that A) Sonny is more vulnerable than we thought and B) more people will vote for the Democrat that they've seen advertising media about (Cox) because at the time of the poll they still hadn't seen Mark's ads.

Basically, us Taylor supporters think Cathy's early leads were a figment of free media inspired name ID. I hear the Big Guy has told supporters that he's pulled ahead in his internal polls, and we'll see who is right when the next batch of surveys come out.

MelGX said...

Hey TaylorTroll, internet polls aren't worth the paper they're printed on. And I'll bet you a steak dinner that the next polls still have Cox ahead of Taylor.

Taylor Troll said...

I think Rasmussen actually makes calls, though doing them all on one night is methodologically suspect.

So, MelGX, do you eat steak if we were to bet?

Button Gwinnett said...

Two years worth of radio and tv advertising? I admit that I don't watch an awful lot of tv. But that doesn't sound right. When you consider that she was only in 4 of the 7 commercials and her name was never once said or appeared on the screen at any time, I'm not sure how beneficial they were to anything other than the fight against fraud. Those ads had nothing to do with the governor's race. But they had a huge impact on making Georgia one of the most inhospitable states for scam artists - a cornerstone of Cox's tenure as SoS.

Mark's the Lt. Gov. He should be ahead by 10 to 15 points by now. He's the solid favorite in this race based upon his rank in the Democratic hierarchy alone. As the president of the senate, he's had at least 4 months of serious air time and press time each year since 1999. So whatever affect the fraud commercials may or may not have had, it has nothing to do with polls today. Most people don't even remember those commercials unless they either used the services they were promoting or if they follow politics as closely as we all seem to.

Taylor's not ouf it, but the fact that we're almost 2 months away from the primary and he's never been ahead in any poll should be cause for concern. With most things going in Taylor's favor, it will be very interesting to see how much progress he's made in the new poll.

At the very least, what's being proven is that Cox is a major force in Georgia politics today and will continue to be a major force for many years to come no matter what.

Amy Morton said...

If Taylor's theory is that Cox is leading because of ads that never included her name on screen and ads that have not run recently, then he must be shaking in his shoes at the prospect of her going up on air with actual campaign commercials. Still, this is going to be a tight primary, and either person can win. My point is that only one of the two can beat Perdue- and it isn't Mark Taylor.

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MelGX said...

TaylorTroll, I am totally carnivorous. As I suspect you are.

Taylor Troll said...

Mel I dunno, I think I'd rather get a college degree than a steak.

MelGX said...

TT, if you're in college, I'm a debutante. And I believe you owe me dinner.

Poll Results - GA from Strategic Vision.

Button Gwinnett said...

Wow these poll results taken the first week of May are very encouraging for the Cox campaign!! Taylor is still looking up at Cox after two rounds of tv ads for Taylor compared to none for Cox. Not to mention that her job approval rating as SoS is higher than Taylor's is as Lt. Gov. AND Cox is within the margin for error against Perdue head to head.

Of course, there's a long, long way to go. But these numbers are very encouraging for the Cox campaign.