Friday, August 4, 2006

Can Mark Taylor Make Lemonade?

Based on the Rasmussen poll released today, here are a few of the things Sonny Perdue brings to the table:

1) Rasmussen has him ahead by 14 points, a number that sounds a lot like the margin (15) by which Bush beat Kerry in Georgia. For Mark Taylor to win in November, a fair number of Georgians who voted for Bush will need to vote for Taylor. Not a terribly easy get.

2) Perdue has, for months, bragged about his grassroots organization. He has published the names of his county chairs, and there is one for every Georgia county.(We don't even have county parties in every county, so we have ground to make up quickly on the grassroots front.)

3) As of June 30, Perdue reports about 9 million cash on hand to Taylor's million. This is almost the converse of the position Perdue was in in 2002, when he won. Now, he has the cash and the grassroots network.

4) Rasmussen says that the issues most on the mind of voters is the economy and jobs, followed by immigration. Taylor and Perdue are tied (good news) among the economy votes, but Perdue is way ahead with the Lou Dobbs fan club. Do Democrats have a clear platform on immigration?

5) Perhaps the hardest thing to swallow is that the voters rather like Perdue. 34% have a "very favorable" view of him as compared to 15% who have a "very favorable" view of Taylor. Only 9% have a "very unfavorable" view of Perdue, compared to 16% for Taylor.

Perdue is not an easy mark for Taylor, yet Taylor seems to savor a fight, and he's a tough politician. It would be a mistake to count him out, but you've got to admit, there's a big mountain to climb here! The question is, can Taylor take lemons and make lemonade? We shall see. The Rasmussen piece is below.

August 4, 2006

Republican Governor Sonny Perdue
Lt. Governor Mark
Taylor (D) spent the first half of 2006 winning the right to be challenge
Governor Sonny Perdue (R) in this November's election. The second half of the
year may be a bit tougher.
Perdue has a 53% to 39% advantage over Taylor in the latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Georgia (see crosstabs).
That's not much different that our last poll before Taylor's primary victory. As if a 14-point lead wasn't enough, Perdue began the general election campaign with $9 million in his campaign war chest while Taylor had just over $1 million.
Thirty-five percent (35%) of Georgians consider the economy to be the most
important voting issue this November. Immigration was named most important by 17% followed by National Security and the War in Iraq at 13% each. The candidates are even among those who see the economy as number one but Perdue has a big lead among those who see immigration as most important. Seventy percent (70%) of Georgia voters believe that election ballots should be printed in English only while 27% believe they should be printed in English and Spanish. Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters have a very favorable opinion of Perdue while just 9% have a very unfavorable view. For Taylor, the numbers are 15% very favorable and 16% very unfavorable.
Crosstabs are available to Premium
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge
Premium Service for Election 2006 offers the most comprehensive public opinion
coverage ever provided for a mid-term election. We update the President's Job Approval Ratings daily and are polling every Senate and Governor's race at least once a month in 2006. Rasmussen Reports was the nation's most accurate polling firm during the Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and
Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.
During Election 2004, was also the top-ranked public
opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest
competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.


Chris said...

I don't know why Rasmussen does this, but he releases polls that are ancient. This poll was conducted July 19th, one day after the primary. Why wait so long? Doesn't make much sense to me.

jo said...

Perdue went to the Carroll Co. republican party meeting a while back and he told them that he has to keep the focus on immigration because he will win and if it goes to healthcare he will lose. We have to force Perdue to talk about the issues and stay away from the wedge issue of immigration.

Amy Morton said...

I agree, but think that they will spend a portion of that 9 mil. trying to bait us into that debate.

Ed Hula III said...

MT and his team are not stupid enough to fall for it.

GoodbyeGADemParty said...

This REAL democrat who voted for Kerry will not be voting for Taylor... he is going down in flames with the useless GA Dem Party.

I may even vote for Sonny... I can't even believe I am thinking that but I am.