Monday, December 31, 2007

New Iowa Poll, Surprising Results

John Edwards has spent far less money in Iowa than Clinton or Obama. He's even been out-spent by Bill Richardson, but, still, Edwards hangs tough. A new InsiderAdvantage poll shows a tight race in Iowa with Hillary Clinton at 30%, Edwards at 29% and Obama at 22%, but Edwards' strength among "second choice" voters may give him the edge on caucus night. When second choice voters are reallocated, look what happens:

Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:


Edwards: 41%

Clinton: 34%

Obama: 25%

1 comment:

Tina said...

just read that the reason some Democrats are having trouble making up their minds is that they actually LIKE all the candidates. May I expand that idea by adding that the the Republicans have just the opposite problem. They are having trouble finding one they DO like. So I say to our Republican friends: "Quit holding your noses and come on over to the Democratic side. You may find a candidate you like!"